Mahasarakham United 4–2 Lampang FC: Result & Stats

Mahasarakham United

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Lampang FC

9/28/2024

Thai League 2 · Round 7Maha Sarakham Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Mahasarakham United45%

×Draw24%

Lampang FC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mahasarakham UnitedExpected goals in this matchLampang FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.36

Mahasarakham United

1.66

Lampang FC

1.36

Mahasarakham United creates 22% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 102 away

1.77

creates per match

1.39

1.34

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Mahasarakham United

1.77

Lampang FC

1.39

allows per match

Mahasarakham United

1.34

Lampang FC

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mahasarakham United+0.00on par

Lampang FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mahasarakham United ↓

Lampang FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Mahasarakham United or draw

68%

Mahasarakham United or Lampang FC

76%

Draw or Lampang FC

55%

Winning margin

Mahasarakham United wins by 2+

23%

Lampang FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mahasarakham United 1+ goals

81%

Mahasarakham United 2+ goals

49%

Mahasarakham United 3+ goals

23%

Lampang FC 1+ goals

74%

Lampang FC 2+ goals

39%

Lampang FC 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Mahasarakham United (draw refunded)

59%

Lampang FC (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mahasarakham United at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

Lampang FC away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.54 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mahasarakham United attack 1.77 + Lampang FC defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.66

Lampang FC attack 1.39 + Mahasarakham United defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mahasarakham United scores more

45%

level

24%

Lampang FC scores more

32%

Mahasarakham United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mahasarakham United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff