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Lampang FC vs Mahasarakham United — Thai League 2 2018

Lampang FC
Lampang FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Mahasarakham United
Mahasarakham United
2/9/2025Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 23Lampang Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Lampang FC44%
×Draw28%
Mahasarakham United28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lampang FC
1.34
Mahasarakham United
1.02

Lampang FC creates 31% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 34 away

creates per match

Lampang FC
1.48
Mahasarakham United
1.03

allows per match

Lampang FC
1.01
Mahasarakham United
1.21

finishing

Lampang FC+0.00on par
Mahasarakham United+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lampang FC ↓

Mahasarakham United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Lampang FC or draw
72%
Lampang FC or Mahasarakham United
72%
Draw or Mahasarakham United
56%

Winning margin

Lampang FC wins by 2+
20%
Mahasarakham United wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lampang FC 1+ goals
74%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
39%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
15%
Mahasarakham United 1+ goals
64%
Mahasarakham United 2+ goals
27%
Mahasarakham United 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lampang FC (draw refunded)
61%
Mahasarakham United (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lampang FC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.01 · 101 matches

Mahasarakham United away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lampang FC attack 1.48 + Mahasarakham United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.34

Mahasarakham United attack 1.03 + Lampang FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lampang FC scores more
44%
level
28%
Mahasarakham United scores more
28%

Lampang FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lampang FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lampang FC vs Mahasarakham United

Lampang FC and Mahasarakham United drew 2-2 in Thai League 2 on February 9, 2025.

The match was played at Lampang Provincial Stadium in Lampang.