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Mahasarakham United vs Esan Pattaya — Thai League 2 2018

Mahasarakham United
Mahasarakham United
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Esan Pattaya
Esan Pattaya
1/19/2025Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 20Maha Sarakham Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Mahasarakham United44%
×Draw25%
Esan Pattaya31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mahasarakham United
1.52
Esan Pattaya
1.22

Mahasarakham United creates 25% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 51 away

creates per match

Mahasarakham United
1.77
Esan Pattaya
1.10

allows per match

Mahasarakham United
1.34
Esan Pattaya
1.27

finishing

Mahasarakham United+0.00on par
Esan Pattaya+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mahasarakham United ↓

Esan Pattaya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Mahasarakham United or draw
69%
Mahasarakham United or Esan Pattaya
75%
Draw or Esan Pattaya
56%

Winning margin

Mahasarakham United wins by 2+
22%
Esan Pattaya wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mahasarakham United 1+ goals
78%
Mahasarakham United 2+ goals
45%
Mahasarakham United 3+ goals
20%
Esan Pattaya 1+ goals
70%
Esan Pattaya 2+ goals
34%
Esan Pattaya 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mahasarakham United (draw refunded)
59%
Esan Pattaya (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mahasarakham United at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

Esan Pattaya away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.27 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mahasarakham United attack 1.77 + Esan Pattaya defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.52

Esan Pattaya attack 1.10 + Mahasarakham United defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mahasarakham United scores more
44%
level
25%
Esan Pattaya scores more
31%

Mahasarakham United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mahasarakham United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Mahasarakham United 1–2 Esan Pattaya

Esan Pattaya beat Mahasarakham United 2-1 in Thai League 2 on January 19, 2025.

The match was played at Maha Sarakham Provincial Stadium in Maha Sarakham.