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Esan Pattaya vs Mahasarakham United — Thai League 2 2018

Esan Pattaya
Esan Pattaya
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Mahasarakham United
Mahasarakham United
11/8/2025Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 12Nongprue Municipality Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Esan Pattaya40%
×Draw28%
Mahasarakham United32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esan Pattaya
1.27
Mahasarakham United
1.11

Esan Pattaya creates 14% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 34 away

creates per match

Esan Pattaya
1.32
Mahasarakham United
1.03

allows per match

Esan Pattaya
1.20
Mahasarakham United
1.21

finishing

Esan Pattaya+0.00on par
Mahasarakham United+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esan Pattaya ↓

Mahasarakham United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Esan Pattaya or draw
68%
Esan Pattaya or Mahasarakham United
72%
Draw or Mahasarakham United
60%

Winning margin

Esan Pattaya wins by 2+
18%
Mahasarakham United wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Esan Pattaya 1+ goals
72%
Esan Pattaya 2+ goals
36%
Esan Pattaya 3+ goals
14%
Mahasarakham United 1+ goals
67%
Mahasarakham United 2+ goals
30%
Mahasarakham United 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Esan Pattaya (draw refunded)
55%
Mahasarakham United (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esan Pattaya at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.20 · 50 matches

Mahasarakham United away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esan Pattaya attack 1.32 + Mahasarakham United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Mahasarakham United attack 1.03 + Esan Pattaya defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Esan Pattaya scores more
40%
level
28%
Mahasarakham United scores more
32%

Esan Pattaya at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Esan Pattaya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Esan Pattaya 2–3 Mahasarakham United

Mahasarakham United beat Esan Pattaya 3-2 in Thai League 2 on November 8, 2025.

The match was played at Nongprue Municipality Stadium.