Maharlika 0–5 Azkals: Result & Stats | PFL

Maharlika

FT

0 – 5

Azkals

11/6/2020

PFL · Round 2San Lazaro Leisure and Business Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Maharlika22%

×Draw20%

Azkals58%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MaharlikaExpected goals in this matchAzkals

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

2.27

Maharlika

1.36

Azkals

2.27

Azkals creates 67% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 10 away

1.63

creates per match

1.70

2.85

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Maharlika

1.63

Azkals

1.70

allows per match

Maharlika

2.85

Azkals

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maharlika+0.00on par

Azkals+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maharlika ↓

Azkals →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Maharlika or draw

42%

Maharlika or Azkals

80%

Draw or Azkals

78%

Winning margin

Maharlika wins by 2+

9%

Azkals wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Maharlika 1+ goals

74%

Maharlika 2+ goals

39%

Maharlika 3+ goals

16%

Azkals 1+ goals

90%

Azkals 2+ goals

66%

Azkals 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Maharlika (draw refunded)

28%

Azkals (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maharlika at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.85 · 40 matches

Azkals away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maharlika attack 1.63 + Azkals defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.36

Azkals attack 1.70 + Maharlika defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Maharlika scores more

22%

level

20%

Azkals scores more

58%

Azkals at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Azkals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff