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Azkals vs Maharlika — PFL 2020

Azkals
Azkals
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Maharlika
Maharlika
8/20/2022PFLPFL · Round 2Rizal Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Azkals55%
×Draw22%
Maharlika23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Azkals
1.91
Maharlika
1.16

Azkals creates 65% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 41 away

creates per match

Azkals
1.50
Maharlika
1.12

allows per match

Azkals
1.20
Maharlika
2.32

finishing

Azkals+0.00on par
Maharlika+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Azkals ↓

Maharlika →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Azkals or draw
77%
Azkals or Maharlika
78%
Draw or Maharlika
45%

Winning margin

Azkals wins by 2+
32%
Maharlika wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Azkals 1+ goals
85%
Azkals 2+ goals
57%
Azkals 3+ goals
30%
Maharlika 1+ goals
69%
Maharlika 2+ goals
32%
Maharlika 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Azkals (draw refunded)
70%
Maharlika (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Azkals at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

Maharlika away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.32 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Azkals attack 1.50 + Maharlika defence 2.32 → ÷2 → 1.91

Maharlika attack 1.12 + Azkals defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Azkals scores more
55%
level
22%
Maharlika scores more
23%

Azkals at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Azkals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

PFL: Azkals 4–0 Maharlika

Azkals beat Maharlika 4-0 in PFL on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at Rizal Memorial Stadium in Manila.