Magpies Crusaders 0–3 Logan Lightning

Magpies Crusaders

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Logan Lightning

5/15/2021

Queensland NPL · Round 9Sologinkin Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Magpies Crusaders19%

×Draw17%

Logan Lightning65%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Magpies CrusadersExpected goals in this matchLogan Lightning

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

2.96

Magpies Crusaders

1.58

Logan Lightning

2.96

Logan Lightning creates 87% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 24 away

1.21

creates per match

1.88

4.03

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Magpies Crusaders

1.21

Logan Lightning

1.88

allows per match

Magpies Crusaders

4.03

Logan Lightning

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Magpies Crusaders+0.00on par

Logan Lightning+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magpies Crusaders ↓

Logan Lightning →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–25%

0–35%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Magpies Crusaders or draw

35%

Magpies Crusaders or Logan Lightning

83%

Draw or Logan Lightning

81%

Winning margin

Magpies Crusaders wins by 2+

8%

Logan Lightning wins by 2+

45%

Team goals

Magpies Crusaders 1+ goals

79%

Magpies Crusaders 2+ goals

47%

Magpies Crusaders 3+ goals

21%

Logan Lightning 1+ goals

95%

Logan Lightning 2+ goals

79%

Logan Lightning 3+ goals

55%

Draw no bet

Magpies Crusaders (draw refunded)

22%

Logan Lightning (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magpies Crusaders at home — creates 1.21, concedes 4.03 · 29 matches

Logan Lightning away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.96 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magpies Crusaders attack 1.21 + Logan Lightning defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.58

Logan Lightning attack 1.88 + Magpies Crusaders defence 4.03 → ÷2 → 2.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Magpies Crusaders scores more

19%

level

17%

Logan Lightning scores more

65%

Logan Lightning at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Logan Lightning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff