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Logan Lightning vs Magpies Crusaders — Queensland NPL 2026

Logan Lightning
Logan Lightning
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Magpies Crusaders
Magpies Crusaders
8/28/2021Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 22Cornubia Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Logan Lightning45%
×Draw21%
Magpies Crusaders34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Logan Lightning
2.09
Magpies Crusaders
1.78

Logan Lightning creates 17% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 30 away

creates per match

Logan Lightning
1.29
Magpies Crusaders
1.10

allows per match

Logan Lightning
2.46
Magpies Crusaders
2.90

finishing

Logan Lightning+0.00on par
Magpies Crusaders+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Logan Lightning ↓

Magpies Crusaders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Logan Lightning or draw
66%
Logan Lightning or Magpies Crusaders
79%
Draw or Magpies Crusaders
55%

Winning margin

Logan Lightning wins by 2+
26%
Magpies Crusaders wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Logan Lightning 1+ goals
88%
Logan Lightning 2+ goals
62%
Logan Lightning 3+ goals
34%
Magpies Crusaders 1+ goals
83%
Magpies Crusaders 2+ goals
53%
Magpies Crusaders 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Logan Lightning (draw refunded)
58%
Magpies Crusaders (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Logan Lightning at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.46 · 24 matches

Magpies Crusaders away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.90 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Logan Lightning attack 1.29 + Magpies Crusaders defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 2.09

Magpies Crusaders attack 1.10 + Logan Lightning defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Logan Lightning scores more
45%
level
21%
Magpies Crusaders scores more
34%

Logan Lightning at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Logan Lightning will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Logan Lightning vs Magpies Crusaders

Logan Lightning and Magpies Crusaders drew 1-1 in Queensland NPL on August 28, 2021.

The match was played at Cornubia Park in Brisbane.