Magpies Crusaders 6–1 Ipswich Knights

Magpies Crusaders

FT

6 – 1

Ipswich Knights

8/20/2022

Queensland Premier League · Round 22Sologinkin Oval

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Magpies Crusaders49%

×Draw19%

Ipswich Knights32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Magpies CrusadersExpected goals in this matchIpswich Knights

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.65

2.13

Magpies Crusaders

2.65

Ipswich Knights

2.13

Magpies Crusaders creates 24% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 20 away

2.70

creates per match

1.95

2.30

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Magpies Crusaders

2.70

Ipswich Knights

1.95

allows per match

Magpies Crusaders

2.30

Ipswich Knights

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Magpies Crusaders+0.00on par

Ipswich Knights+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes82
No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magpies Crusaders ↓

Ipswich Knights →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

70%30%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

Magpies Crusaders or draw

68%

Magpies Crusaders or Ipswich Knights

81%

Draw or Ipswich Knights

51%

Winning margin

Magpies Crusaders wins by 2+

31%

Ipswich Knights wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Magpies Crusaders 1+ goals

93%

Magpies Crusaders 2+ goals

74%

Magpies Crusaders 3+ goals

48%

Ipswich Knights 1+ goals

88%

Ipswich Knights 2+ goals

63%

Ipswich Knights 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Magpies Crusaders (draw refunded)

61%

Ipswich Knights (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magpies Crusaders at home — creates 2.70, concedes 2.30 · 10 matches

Ipswich Knights away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magpies Crusaders attack 2.70 + Ipswich Knights defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.65

Ipswich Knights attack 1.95 + Magpies Crusaders defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Magpies Crusaders scores more

49%

level

19%

Ipswich Knights scores more

32%

Magpies Crusaders at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Magpies Crusaders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff