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Ipswich Knights vs Magpies Crusaders — Queensland Premier League 2021

Ipswich Knights
Ipswich Knights
FT
1 – 4
Magpies Crusaders
Magpies Crusaders
5/21/2022Queensland Premier LeagueQueensland Premier League · Round 11Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Ipswich Knights39%
×Draw19%
Magpies Crusaders41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ipswich Knights
2.33
Magpies Crusaders
2.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 10 away

creates per match

Ipswich Knights
1.65
Magpies Crusaders
2.50

allows per match

Ipswich Knights
2.25
Magpies Crusaders
3.00

finishing

Ipswich Knights+0.00on par
Magpies Crusaders+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ipswich Knights ↓

Magpies Crusaders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Ipswich Knights or draw
59%
Ipswich Knights or Magpies Crusaders
81%
Draw or Magpies Crusaders
61%

Winning margin

Ipswich Knights wins by 2+
23%
Magpies Crusaders wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Ipswich Knights 1+ goals
90%
Ipswich Knights 2+ goals
67%
Ipswich Knights 3+ goals
41%
Magpies Crusaders 1+ goals
91%
Magpies Crusaders 2+ goals
68%
Magpies Crusaders 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Ipswich Knights (draw refunded)
49%
Magpies Crusaders (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ipswich Knights at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.25 · 20 matches

Magpies Crusaders away — creates 2.50, concedes 3.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ipswich Knights attack 1.65 + Magpies Crusaders defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Magpies Crusaders attack 2.50 + Ipswich Knights defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ipswich Knights scores more
39%
level
19%
Magpies Crusaders scores more
41%

Magpies Crusaders at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Magpies Crusaders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Queensland Premier League: Ipswich Knights 1–4 Magpies Crusaders

Magpies Crusaders beat Ipswich Knights 4-1 in Queensland Premier League on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex 1 in Burpengary.