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Maghreb Fès vs Chabab RIF Hoceima — Botola 2 2025

Maghreb Fès
Maghreb Fès
FT
3 – 0
Chabab RIF Hoceima
Chabab RIF Hoceima
10/27/2019Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 1Stade d'Honneur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Maghreb Fès61%
×Draw25%
Chabab RIF Hoceima14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maghreb Fès
1.54
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.58

Maghreb Fès creates 166% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Maghreb Fès
1.60
Chabab RIF Hoceima
0.47

allows per match

Maghreb Fès
0.70
Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.47

finishing

Maghreb Fès+0.00on par
Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maghreb Fès ↓

Chabab RIF Hoceima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Maghreb Fès or draw
86%
Maghreb Fès or Chabab RIF Hoceima
75%
Draw or Chabab RIF Hoceima
39%

Winning margin

Maghreb Fès wins by 2+
33%
Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Maghreb Fès 1+ goals
79%
Maghreb Fès 2+ goals
45%
Maghreb Fès 3+ goals
20%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals
44%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals
12%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Maghreb Fès (draw refunded)
81%
Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maghreb Fès at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.70 · 30 matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maghreb Fès attack 1.60 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.54

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 0.47 + Maghreb Fès defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Maghreb Fès scores more
61%
level
25%
Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more
14%

Maghreb Fès at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Maghreb Fès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Maghreb Fès 3–0 Chabab RIF Hoceima

Maghreb Fès beat Chabab RIF Hoceima 3-0 in Botola 2 on October 27, 2019.

The match was played at Stade d'Honneur in Meknès.