Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chabab RIF Hoceima vs Maghreb Fès — Botola 2 2025

Chabab RIF Hoceima
Chabab RIF Hoceima
FT
0 – 1
Maghreb Fès
Maghreb Fès
1/26/2020Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 16Stade Mimoun Al Arsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Chabab RIF Hoceima36%
×Draw29%
Maghreb Fès35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.13
Maghreb Fès
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.13
Maghreb Fès
1.03

allows per match

Chabab RIF Hoceima
1.20
Maghreb Fès
1.13

finishing

Chabab RIF Hoceima+0.00on par
Maghreb Fès+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab RIF Hoceima ↓

Maghreb Fès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Chabab RIF Hoceima or draw
65%
Chabab RIF Hoceima or Maghreb Fès
71%
Draw or Maghreb Fès
64%

Winning margin

Chabab RIF Hoceima wins by 2+
15%
Maghreb Fès wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chabab RIF Hoceima 1+ goals
68%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 2+ goals
31%
Chabab RIF Hoceima 3+ goals
11%
Maghreb Fès 1+ goals
67%
Maghreb Fès 2+ goals
30%
Maghreb Fès 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Chabab RIF Hoceima (draw refunded)
51%
Maghreb Fès (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab RIF Hoceima at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

Maghreb Fès away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab RIF Hoceima attack 1.13 + Maghreb Fès defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.13

Maghreb Fès attack 1.03 + Chabab RIF Hoceima defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Chabab RIF Hoceima scores more
36%
level
29%
Maghreb Fès scores more
35%

Chabab RIF Hoceima at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Chabab RIF Hoceima will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: Chabab RIF Hoceima 0–1 Maghreb Fès

Maghreb Fès beat Chabab RIF Hoceima 1-0 in Botola 2 on January 26, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Mimoun Al Arsi in Al Hoceima.