Maghreb Fès 1–0 Chabab Mohammédia: Result & Stats

Maghreb Fès

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chabab Mohammédia

2/21/2025

Botola Pro · Round 22Stade Hassan-II

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Maghreb Fès48%

×Draw30%

Chabab Mohammédia22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maghreb FèsExpected goals in this matchChabab Mohammédia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.72

Maghreb Fès

1.22

Chabab Mohammédia

0.72

Maghreb Fès creates 69% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 75 away

1.16

creates per match

0.63

0.82

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Maghreb Fès

1.16

Chabab Mohammédia

0.63

allows per match

Maghreb Fès

0.82

Chabab Mohammédia

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maghreb Fès+0.00on par

Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maghreb Fès ↓

Chabab Mohammédia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Maghreb Fès or draw

78%

Maghreb Fès or Chabab Mohammédia

70%

Draw or Chabab Mohammédia

52%

Winning margin

Maghreb Fès wins by 2+

22%

Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Maghreb Fès 1+ goals

70%

Maghreb Fès 2+ goals

34%

Maghreb Fès 3+ goals

12%

Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals

51%

Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals

16%

Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Maghreb Fès (draw refunded)

69%

Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maghreb Fès at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.82 · 90 matches

Chabab Mohammédia away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.28 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maghreb Fès attack 1.16 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.22

Chabab Mohammédia attack 0.63 + Maghreb Fès defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Maghreb Fès scores more

48%

level

30%

Chabab Mohammédia scores more

22%

Maghreb Fès at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Maghreb Fès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff