Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Chabab Mohammédia vs Maghreb Fès — Botola Pro 2025

Chabab Mohammédia
Chabab Mohammédia
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Maghreb Fès
Maghreb Fès
6/1/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 29Stade El Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Chabab Mohammédia29%
×Draw29%
Maghreb Fès42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chabab Mohammédia
0.94
Maghreb Fès
1.21

Maghreb Fès creates 29% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 90 away

creates per match

Chabab Mohammédia
0.87
Maghreb Fès
0.99

allows per match

Chabab Mohammédia
1.44
Maghreb Fès
1.01

finishing

Chabab Mohammédia+0.00on par
Maghreb Fès+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chabab Mohammédia ↓

Maghreb Fès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Chabab Mohammédia or draw
58%
Chabab Mohammédia or Maghreb Fès
71%
Draw or Maghreb Fès
71%

Winning margin

Chabab Mohammédia wins by 2+
10%
Maghreb Fès wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Chabab Mohammédia 1+ goals
61%
Chabab Mohammédia 2+ goals
24%
Chabab Mohammédia 3+ goals
7%
Maghreb Fès 1+ goals
70%
Maghreb Fès 2+ goals
34%
Maghreb Fès 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Chabab Mohammédia (draw refunded)
40%
Maghreb Fès (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chabab Mohammédia at home — creates 0.87, concedes 1.44 · 75 matches

Maghreb Fès away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.01 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chabab Mohammédia attack 0.87 + Maghreb Fès defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.94

Maghreb Fès attack 0.99 + Chabab Mohammédia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chabab Mohammédia scores more
29%
level
29%
Maghreb Fès scores more
42%

Maghreb Fès at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Maghreb Fès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Chabab Mohammédia 0–2 Maghreb Fès

Maghreb Fès beat Chabab Mohammédia 2-0 in Botola Pro on June 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stade El Bachir in Mohammédia.