Magdeburg U19 2–1 Wolfsburg U19: Result & Stats

Magdeburg U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Wolfsburg U19

M. Kleinschmidt 15'

M. Kadner 6'

E. Grzywacz 66'

10/26/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 10Platz 2 MCDD-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Magdeburg U1932%

×Draw21%

Wolfsburg U1948%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Magdeburg U19Expected goals in this matchWolfsburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

2.20

Magdeburg U19

1.78

Wolfsburg U19

2.20

Wolfsburg U19 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 78 away

2.37

creates per match

2.40

2.00

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Magdeburg U19

2.37

Wolfsburg U19

2.40

allows per match

Magdeburg U19

2.00

Wolfsburg U19

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Magdeburg U19+0.00on par

Wolfsburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magdeburg U19 ↓

Wolfsburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Magdeburg U19 or draw

52%

Magdeburg U19 or Wolfsburg U19

79%

Draw or Wolfsburg U19

68%

Winning margin

Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+

16%

Wolfsburg U19 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Magdeburg U19 1+ goals

83%

Magdeburg U19 2+ goals

53%

Magdeburg U19 3+ goals

26%

Wolfsburg U19 1+ goals

89%

Wolfsburg U19 2+ goals

64%

Wolfsburg U19 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Wolfsburg U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magdeburg U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 2.00 · 62 matches

Wolfsburg U19 away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.19 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.37 + Wolfsburg U19 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.78

Wolfsburg U19 attack 2.40 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Magdeburg U19 scores more

32%

level

21%

Wolfsburg U19 scores more

48%

Wolfsburg U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wolfsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

M. Kadner

15'

M. Kleinschmidt

60'

B. Hamidovic← C. Güllmeister

60'

A. Georgiadi← N. Yacubi

66'

E. Grzywacz

70'

K. Šimić← T. Benedict

78'

L. Grabenberg← I. Scheffler

84'

K. Soylu← A. Børset

84'

O. Brammer← L. Köhler

Magdeburg

Wolfsburg

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: D. Wölfel

60'▲B. Hamidovic←▼C. Güllmeister

78'▲L. Grabenberg←▼I. Scheffler

Magdeburg U19 substitutes

HamidovicGrabenbergStraußFrenzelGantzke

Manager: D. Bauer

60'▲A. Georgiadi←▼N. Yacubi

70'▲K. Šimić←▼T. Benedict

84'▲K. Soylu←▼A. Børset

84'▲O. Brammer←▼L. Köhler

Wolfsburg U19 substitutes

GeorgiadiŠimićSoyluBrammerHoffmannProkoppKaraman