Magdeburg U19 2–4 Wolfsburg U19: Result & Stats

Magdeburg U19

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 3

Wolfsburg U19

C. Krüger 34'

E. Elekwa 18'

A. Georgiadi 90+4'

E. Aslanidis 40', 28', 22'

9/3/2023

DFB Junioren Pokal · 1st RoundPlatz 2 MCDD-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Magdeburg U1911%

×Draw14%

Wolfsburg U1975%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Magdeburg U19Expected goals in this matchWolfsburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

3.12

Magdeburg U19

1.15

Wolfsburg U19

3.12

Wolfsburg U19 creates 171% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

1.00

creates per match

2.57

3.67

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Magdeburg U19

1.00

Wolfsburg U19

2.57

allows per match

Magdeburg U19

3.67

Wolfsburg U19

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Magdeburg U19+0.00on par

Wolfsburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magdeburg U19 ↓

Wolfsburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–15%

0–27%

0–37%

0–46%

1

1–02%

1–15%

1–28%

1–38%

1–47%

2

2–01%

2–13%

2–25%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Magdeburg U19 or draw

25%

Magdeburg U19 or Wolfsburg U19

86%

Draw or Wolfsburg U19

89%

Winning margin

Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+

4%

Wolfsburg U19 wins by 2+

56%

Team goals

Magdeburg U19 1+ goals

68%

Magdeburg U19 2+ goals

32%

Magdeburg U19 3+ goals

11%

Wolfsburg U19 1+ goals

95%

Wolfsburg U19 2+ goals

81%

Wolfsburg U19 3+ goals

59%

Draw no bet

Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)

13%

Wolfsburg U19 (draw refunded)

87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magdeburg U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

Wolfsburg U19 away — creates 2.57, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magdeburg U19 attack 1.00 + Wolfsburg U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Wolfsburg U19 attack 2.57 + Magdeburg U19 defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 3.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Magdeburg U19 scores more

11%

level

14%

Wolfsburg U19 scores more

75%

Wolfsburg U19 at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Wolfsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

22'

28'

34'

40'

64'

D. Costa← J. Akaegbobi

75'

D. Strobach← M. Baars

77'

E. Grzywacz← C. Østergaard

77'

Jessé Costa← E. Aslanidis

86'

J. Köppe← E. Schültke

88'

A. Georgiadi← D. Pejčinović

90+4'

A. Georgiadi

Magdeburg

Wolfsburg

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: D. Wölfel

75'▲D. Strobach←▼M. Baars

86'▲J. Köppe←▼E. Schültke

Magdeburg U19 substitutes

StrobachKöppeGüllmeisterGüldnerGrabenbergRehSanatci

Manager: D. Bauer

64'▲D. Costa←▼J. Akaegbobi

77'▲E. Grzywacz←▼C. Østergaard

77'▲Jessé Costa←▼E. Aslanidis

88'▲A. Georgiadi←▼D. Pejčinović

Wolfsburg U19 substitutes

CostaGrzywaczCostaGeorgiadiBörnerKöhlerHerrmann

DFB Junioren Pokal: Magdeburg U19 2–4 Wolfsburg U19

Wolfsburg U19 beat Magdeburg U19 4-2 in DFB Junioren Pokal on September 3, 2023.

Goals: E. Elekwa (18'), E. Aslanidis (22', 28', 40'), C. Krüger (34'), A. Georgiadi (90+4').

The match was played at Platz 2 MCDD-Arena in Magdeburg.

Magdeburg U19 vs Wolfsburg U19 — DFB Junioren Pokal 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

DFB Junioren Pokal: Magdeburg U19 2–4 Wolfsburg U19