Magdeburg U19 1–0 Holstein Kiel U19: Result & Stats

Magdeburg U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Holstein Kiel U19

A. Capli 85'

9/26/2020

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 2Platz 2 MCDD-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Magdeburg U1953%

×Draw19%

Holstein Kiel U1928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Magdeburg U19Expected goals in this matchHolstein Kiel U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.54

1.81

Magdeburg U19

2.54

Holstein Kiel U19

1.81

Magdeburg U19 creates 40% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 61 away

2.37

creates per match

1.61

2.00

allows per match

2.70

creates per match

Magdeburg U19

2.37

Holstein Kiel U19

1.61

allows per match

Magdeburg U19

2.00

Holstein Kiel U19

2.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Magdeburg U19+0.00on par

Holstein Kiel U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magdeburg U19 ↓

Holstein Kiel U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Magdeburg U19 or draw

72%

Magdeburg U19 or Holstein Kiel U19

81%

Draw or Holstein Kiel U19

47%

Winning margin

Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+

34%

Holstein Kiel U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Magdeburg U19 1+ goals

92%

Magdeburg U19 2+ goals

72%

Magdeburg U19 3+ goals

46%

Holstein Kiel U19 1+ goals

84%

Holstein Kiel U19 2+ goals

54%

Holstein Kiel U19 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)

66%

Holstein Kiel U19 (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magdeburg U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 2.00 · 62 matches

Holstein Kiel U19 away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.70 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.37 + Holstein Kiel U19 defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 2.54

Holstein Kiel U19 attack 1.61 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Magdeburg U19 scores more

53%

level

19%

Holstein Kiel U19 scores more

28%

Magdeburg U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Magdeburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

A. Capli← O. Hoch

14'

A. Quaas← L. Reimers

45+3'

Y. von der Mehden← T. Marten

64'

L. Malina← P. Minkmar

64'

B. Nohns← F. Moumouni

81'

P. Gysbers← A. Capli

85'

A. Capli

87'

N. Vetter← F. Romdhane

87'

N. Lipkow← F. Ghafury

Magdeburg

Holstein

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Sander

14'▲A. Capli←▼O. Hoch

64'▲L. Malina←▼P. Minkmar

81'▲P. Gysbers←▼A. Capli

87'▲N. Vetter←▼F. Romdhane

Magdeburg U19 substitutes

CapliMalinaGysbersVetterBleckerRadomKruth

Manager: E. Ostermann

14'▲A. Quaas←▼L. Reimers

45+3'▲Y. von der Mehden←▼T. Marten

64'▲B. Nohns←▼F. Moumouni

87'▲N. Lipkow←▼F. Ghafury

Holstein Kiel U19 substitutes

QuaasMehdenNohnsLipkowYildirimerFreudenbergBraunschweig