Holstein Kiel U19 1–6 Magdeburg U19: Result & Stats

Holstein Kiel U19

FT

1 – 6

HT: 0 – 5

Magdeburg U19

I. Matene 65'

J. Frenzel 53'

L. Rothenhagen 36' (OG)

M. Baars 30', 5', 2' (pen)

C. Güllmeister 19'

11/2/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 11Citti Fussball Park - Projensdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Holstein Kiel U1937%

×Draw21%

Magdeburg U1942%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Holstein Kiel U19Expected goals in this matchMagdeburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

2.05

Holstein Kiel U19

1.90

Magdeburg U19

2.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 61 away

1.51

creates per match

2.02

2.08

allows per match

2.30

creates per match

Holstein Kiel U19

1.51

Magdeburg U19

2.02

allows per match

Holstein Kiel U19

2.08

Magdeburg U19

2.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Holstein Kiel U19+0.00on par

Magdeburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holstein Kiel U19 ↓

Magdeburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Holstein Kiel U19 or draw

58%

Holstein Kiel U19 or Magdeburg U19

79%

Draw or Magdeburg U19

63%

Winning margin

Holstein Kiel U19 wins by 2+

19%

Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Holstein Kiel U19 1+ goals

85%

Holstein Kiel U19 2+ goals

56%

Holstein Kiel U19 3+ goals

29%

Magdeburg U19 1+ goals

87%

Magdeburg U19 2+ goals

61%

Magdeburg U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Holstein Kiel U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holstein Kiel U19 at home — creates 1.51, concedes 2.08 · 61 matches

Magdeburg U19 away — creates 2.02, concedes 2.30 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holstein Kiel U19 attack 1.51 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.90

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.02 + Holstein Kiel U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Holstein Kiel U19 scores more

37%

level

21%

Magdeburg U19 scores more

42%

Magdeburg U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Magdeburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

M. BaarsPenalty

5'

M. Baars

19'

C. Güllmeister

30'

M. Baars

36'

L. RothenhagenOwn goal

42'

H. Westphal← A. Abdulla

42'

K. Hahn← L. Junge

42'

K. Kortum← M. Meyer

42'

T. Spieckermann← A. Assameur

46'

J. Frenzel← K. Madumere

53'

J. Frenzel

57'

B. Hamidovic← E. Siebert

63'

F. Luth← V. Lückner

65'

I. Matene

71'

K. Tack← Y. Zöllner

90'

L. Gantzke← M. Kadner

Holstein

Magdeburg

⚽

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

🥅

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: J. Kaps

42'▲H. Westphal←▼A. Abdulla

42'▲K. Hahn←▼L. Junge

42'▲K. Kortum←▼M. Meyer

42'▲T. Spieckermann←▼A. Assameur

63'▲F. Luth←▼V. Lückner

71'▲K. Tack←▼Y. Zöllner

Holstein Kiel U19 substitutes

WestphalHahnKortumSpieckermannLuthTackMüller-Kalthoff

Manager: D. Wölfel

46'▲J. Frenzel←▼K. Madumere

57'▲B. Hamidovic←▼E. Siebert

90'▲L. Gantzke←▼M. Kadner

Magdeburg U19 substitutes

FrenzelHamidovicGantzke

U19 Bundesliga: Holstein Kiel U19 1–6 Magdeburg U19

Magdeburg U19 beat Holstein Kiel U19 6-1 in U19 Bundesliga on November 2, 2024.

Goals: M. Baars (2' pen, 5', 30'), C. Güllmeister (19'), L. Rothenhagen (36' o.g.), J. Frenzel (53'), I. Matene (65').

The match was played at Citti Fussball Park - Projensdorf in Kiel.

Holstein Kiel U19 vs Magdeburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Holstein Kiel U19 1–6 Magdeburg U19