Magdeburg U19 0–6 Hertha Zehlendorf U19

Magdeburg U19

FT

0 – 6

HT: 0 – 2

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

A. Soliman 70', 59'

A. Millgramm 62'

H. Muqaj 56', 44', 30'

5/13/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - League B - 2Platz 2 MCDD-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Magdeburg U1939%

×Draw21%

Hertha Zehlendorf U1940%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Magdeburg U19Expected goals in this matchHertha Zehlendorf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

2.04

Magdeburg U19

2.00

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 11 away

2.37

creates per match

2.09

2.00

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Magdeburg U19

2.37

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.09

allows per match

Magdeburg U19

2.00

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Magdeburg U19+0.00on par

Hertha Zehlendorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magdeburg U19 ↓

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Magdeburg U19 or draw

60%

Magdeburg U19 or Hertha Zehlendorf U19

79%

Draw or Hertha Zehlendorf U19

61%

Winning margin

Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+

21%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Magdeburg U19 1+ goals

86%

Magdeburg U19 2+ goals

59%

Magdeburg U19 3+ goals

32%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 1+ goals

87%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 2+ goals

60%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magdeburg U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 2.00 · 62 matches

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 away — creates 2.09, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.37 + Hertha Zehlendorf U19 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.00

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 attack 2.09 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Magdeburg U19 scores more

39%

level

21%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 scores more

40%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hertha Zehlendorf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

H. Muqaj

44'

H. Muqaj

46'

T. Reh← J. Mehnert

46'

A. Soliman← T. Koczulap

46'

J. Nnaemeka-Chukwurah← J. Hartl

46'

56'

59'

60'

62'

67'

67'

M. Görlitz← D. Kljajić

70'

A. Soliman

Magdeburg

Hertha

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

▼

Manager: D. Wölfel

46'▲T. Reh←▼J. Mehnert

60'▲N. Höfer←▼E. Elekwa

Magdeburg U19 substitutes

RehHöferGüllmeisterMergnerBaarsKallis

Manager: M. Siebert

46'▲A. Soliman←▼T. Koczulap

46'▲J. Nnaemeka-Chukwurah←▼J. Hartl

46'▲P. Behrend←▼E. Akova

67'▲B. Trojahn←▼H. Muqaj

67'▲M. Görlitz←▼D. Kljajić

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 substitutes

SolimanNnaemeka-ChukwurahBehrendTrojahnGörlitzErdogan

Match Recap: Magdeburg U19 vs Hertha Zehlendorf U19

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 beat Magdeburg U19 6-0 in U19 Bundesliga on May 13, 2023.

Goals: H. Muqaj (30', 44', 56'), A. Soliman (59', 70'), A. Millgramm (62').

The match was played at Platz 2 MCDD-Arena in Magdeburg.

Magdeburg U19 vs Hertha Zehlendorf U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Magdeburg U19 vs Hertha Zehlendorf U19