Hertha Zehlendorf U19 1–2 Magdeburg U19

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Magdeburg U19

L. Zdep 87'

R. Meier 36', 21'

12/4/2022

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 11Ernst-Reuter-Sportfeld

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Hertha Zehlendorf U1942%

×Draw20%

Magdeburg U1938%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha Zehlendorf U19Expected goals in this matchMagdeburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

2.19

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.30

Magdeburg U19

2.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 62 away

2.27

creates per match

2.02

2.36

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.27

Magdeburg U19

2.02

allows per match

Hertha Zehlendorf U19

2.36

Magdeburg U19

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha Zehlendorf U19+0.00on par

Magdeburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 ↓

Magdeburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 or draw

62%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 or Magdeburg U19

80%

Draw or Magdeburg U19

58%

Winning margin

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 wins by 2+

24%

Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 1+ goals

90%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 2+ goals

67%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 3+ goals

40%

Magdeburg U19 1+ goals

89%

Magdeburg U19 2+ goals

64%

Magdeburg U19 3+ goals

37%

Draw no bet

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 at home — creates 2.27, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

Magdeburg U19 away — creates 2.02, concedes 2.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 attack 2.27 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.30

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.02 + Hertha Zehlendorf U19 defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 scores more

42%

level

20%

Magdeburg U19 scores more

38%

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hertha Zehlendorf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

R. Meier

36'

R. Meier

53'

W. Noack← T. Koczulap

69'

L. Zdep← A. Soliman

75'

C. Krüger← R. Meier

80'

L. Bolke

80'

L. Bolke

81'

D. Kljajic

81'

D. Kljajic

83'

L. Ugbogbo← T. Fron

87'

L. Zdep

89'

E. Akova

90+3'

B. Hamidovic← T. Birk

Hertha

Magdeburg

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Siebert

53'▲W. Noack←▼T. Koczulap

69'▲L. Zdep←▼A. Soliman

83'▲L. Ugbogbo←▼T. Fron

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 substitutes

NoackZdepUgbogboTrojahnKarikaNnaemeka-ChukwurahGörlitz

Manager: D. Wölfel

75'▲C. Krüger←▼R. Meier

90+3'▲B. Hamidovic←▼T. Birk

Magdeburg U19 substitutes

KrügerHamidovicElekwaKlautzschHöferKallisSanatci

U19 Bundesliga: Hertha Zehlendorf U19 1–2 Magdeburg U19

Magdeburg U19 beat Hertha Zehlendorf U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on December 4, 2022.

Goals: R. Meier (21', 36'), L. Zdep (87').

The match was played at Ernst-Reuter-Sportfeld in Berlin.

Hertha Zehlendorf U19 vs Magdeburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Hertha Zehlendorf U19 1–2 Magdeburg U19