Magdeburg U19 2–4 Hamburger SV U19: Result & Stats

Magdeburg U19

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Hamburger SV U19

M. Baars 80' (pen)

M. Kadner 45+1'

A. Riedel 56', 39'

N. Tuppeck 7', 2'

8/9/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 2Platz 2 MCDD-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Magdeburg U1940%

×Draw21%

Hamburger SV U1939%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Magdeburg U19Expected goals in this matchHamburger SV U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

2.05

Magdeburg U19

2.09

Hamburger SV U19

2.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 79 away

2.37

creates per match

2.10

2.00

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Magdeburg U19

2.37

Hamburger SV U19

2.10

allows per match

Magdeburg U19

2.00

Hamburger SV U19

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Magdeburg U19+0.00on par

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magdeburg U19 ↓

Hamburger SV U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Magdeburg U19 or draw

61%

Magdeburg U19 or Hamburger SV U19

79%

Draw or Hamburger SV U19

60%

Winning margin

Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+

22%

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Magdeburg U19 1+ goals

88%

Magdeburg U19 2+ goals

62%

Magdeburg U19 3+ goals

34%

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals

87%

Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals

61%

Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)

51%

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magdeburg U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 2.00 · 62 matches

Hamburger SV U19 away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.81 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.37 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.09

Hamburger SV U19 attack 2.10 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Magdeburg U19 scores more

40%

level

21%

Hamburger SV U19 scores more

39%

Magdeburg U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Magdeburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

N. Tuppeck

7'

N. Tuppeck

39'

A. Riedel

43'

45+1'

M. Kadner

46'

P. Heinrich← B. Ekobena-Seeger

56'

A. Riedel

66'

E. Jaschan← M. Reimers

66'

Ismaila Djamanca← H. Schümann

76'

C. Nana-Sarhene← J. Nabe

76'

K. Machado← J. Bugaj

80'

K. Madumere← C. Güllmeister

80'

L. Gramelsberger← M. Kadner

80'

M. BaarsPenalty

89'

A. Buljubašić← N. Tuppeck

89'

K. Ojo← A. Riedel

Magdeburg

Hamburger

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Riedel

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: D. Wölfel

46'▲P. Heinrich←▼B. Ekobena-Seeger

80'▲K. Madumere←▼C. Güllmeister

80'▲L. Gramelsberger←▼M. Kadner

Magdeburg U19 substitutes

HeinrichMadumereGramelsbergerSiebertStraußGantzkeGrabenberg

Manager: L. Pfeiffer

66'▲E. Jaschan←▼M. Reimers

66'▲Ismaila Djamanca←▼H. Schümann

76'▲C. Nana-Sarhene←▼J. Nabe

76'▲K. Machado←▼J. Bugaj

89'▲A. Buljubašić←▼N. Tuppeck

89'▲K. Ojo←▼A. Riedel

Hamburger SV U19 substitutes

JaschanDjamancaNana-SarheneMachadoBuljubašićOjoLewinski

U19 Bundesliga: Magdeburg U19 2–4 Hamburger SV U19

Hamburger SV U19 beat Magdeburg U19 4-2 in U19 Bundesliga on August 9, 2024.

Goals: N. Tuppeck (2', 7'), A. Riedel (39', 56'), M. Kadner (45+1'), M. Baars (80' pen).

The match was played at Platz 2 MCDD-Arena in Magdeburg.

Magdeburg U19 vs Hamburger SV U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Magdeburg U19 2–4 Hamburger SV U19