Hamburger SV U19 2–4 Magdeburg U19: Result & Stats

Hamburger SV U19

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Magdeburg U19

C. Nana-Sarhene 45+2'

O. Stange 45+1'

P. Heinrich 88'

M. Kleinschmidt 67'

M. Baars 31', 16'

10/19/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 9Paul-Hauenschild-Plätze 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Hamburger SV U1950%

×Draw20%

Magdeburg U1930%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamburger SV U19Expected goals in this matchMagdeburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.86

Hamburger SV U19

2.42

Magdeburg U19

1.86

Hamburger SV U19 creates 30% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 62 away

2.49

creates per match

2.02

1.71

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Hamburger SV U19

2.49

Magdeburg U19

2.02

allows per match

Hamburger SV U19

1.71

Magdeburg U19

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamburger SV U19+0.00on par

Magdeburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamburger SV U19 ↓

Magdeburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Hamburger SV U19 or draw

70%

Hamburger SV U19 or Magdeburg U19

80%

Draw or Magdeburg U19

50%

Winning margin

Hamburger SV U19 wins by 2+

31%

Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hamburger SV U19 1+ goals

91%

Hamburger SV U19 2+ goals

69%

Hamburger SV U19 3+ goals

43%

Magdeburg U19 1+ goals

84%

Magdeburg U19 2+ goals

55%

Magdeburg U19 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Hamburger SV U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamburger SV U19 at home — creates 2.49, concedes 1.71 · 76 matches

Magdeburg U19 away — creates 2.02, concedes 2.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamburger SV U19 attack 2.49 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.42

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.02 + Hamburger SV U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hamburger SV U19 scores more

50%

level

20%

Magdeburg U19 scores more

30%

Hamburger SV U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hamburger SV U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

M. Baars

31'

M. Baars

42'

C. Güllmeister← K. Madumere

45+1'

O. Stange

45+2'

C. Nana-Sarhene

46'

M. Sarfo-Adjei← N. Adekunle

46'

B. Ekobena-Seeger← L. Grabenberg

67'

M. Kleinschmidt

72'

Ismaila Djamanca← M. Reimers

72'

P. Quasi← C. Nana-Sarhene

80'

M. Herrmann← M. Kadner

85'

Y. Rusani← K. Ojo

88'

P. Heinrich

89'

D. Richardt← H. Schümann

89'

E. Jaschan← J. Nabe

Hamburger

Magdeburg

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: L. Pfeiffer

46'▲M. Sarfo-Adjei←▼N. Adekunle

72'▲Ismaila Djamanca←▼M. Reimers

72'▲P. Quasi←▼C. Nana-Sarhene

85'▲Y. Rusani←▼K. Ojo

89'▲D. Richardt←▼H. Schümann

89'▲E. Jaschan←▼J. Nabe

Hamburger SV U19 substitutes

Sarfo-AdjeiDjamancaQuasiRusaniRichardtJaschanBrätz

Manager: D. Wölfel

42'▲C. Güllmeister←▼K. Madumere

46'▲B. Ekobena-Seeger←▼L. Grabenberg

80'▲M. Herrmann←▼M. Kadner

Magdeburg U19 substitutes

GüllmeisterEkobena-SeegerHerrmannStraußGantzke

U19 Bundesliga: Hamburger SV U19 2–4 Magdeburg U19

Magdeburg U19 beat Hamburger SV U19 4-2 in U19 Bundesliga on October 19, 2024.

Goals: M. Baars (16', 31'), O. Stange (45+1'), C. Nana-Sarhene (45+2'), M. Kleinschmidt (67'), P. Heinrich (88').

The match was played at Paul-Hauenschild-Plätze 10 in Norderstedt.

Hamburger SV U19 vs Magdeburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Hamburger SV U19 2–4 Magdeburg U19