Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Magdeburg U19 vs Dynamo Dresden U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Magdeburg U19
Magdeburg U19
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Dynamo Dresden U19
Dynamo Dresden U19
12/6/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 14Platz 2 MCDD-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Magdeburg U1945%
×Draw21%
Dynamo Dresden U1934%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Magdeburg U19
2.06
Dynamo Dresden U19
1.77

Magdeburg U19 creates 16% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 80 away

creates per match

Magdeburg U19
2.37
Dynamo Dresden U19
1.55

allows per match

Magdeburg U19
2.00
Dynamo Dresden U19
1.76

finishing

Magdeburg U19+0.00on par
Dynamo Dresden U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magdeburg U19 ↓

Dynamo Dresden U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Magdeburg U19 or draw
66%
Magdeburg U19 or Dynamo Dresden U19
79%
Draw or Dynamo Dresden U19
55%

Winning margin

Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+
25%
Dynamo Dresden U19 wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Magdeburg U19 1+ goals
87%
Magdeburg U19 2+ goals
61%
Magdeburg U19 3+ goals
34%
Dynamo Dresden U19 1+ goals
83%
Dynamo Dresden U19 2+ goals
53%
Dynamo Dresden U19 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)
57%
Dynamo Dresden U19 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magdeburg U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 2.00 · 62 matches

Dynamo Dresden U19 away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.76 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.37 + Dynamo Dresden U19 defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.06

Dynamo Dresden U19 attack 1.55 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Magdeburg U19 scores more
45%
level
21%
Dynamo Dresden U19 scores more
34%

Magdeburg U19 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Magdeburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Magdeburg
Dynamo
D. Wölfel
Manager: D. Wölfel
S. König
Manager: S. König

Match Recap: Magdeburg U19 vs Dynamo Dresden U19

Magdeburg U19 beat Dynamo Dresden U19 6-1 in U19 Bundesliga on December 6, 2025.

The match was played at Platz 2 MCDD-Arena in Magdeburg.