Dynamo Dresden U19 4–1 Magdeburg U19

Dynamo Dresden U19

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Magdeburg U19

C. Kosak 88'

L. Schulze 76' (pen)

J. Löwe 51'

J. Hoffmann 45'

E. Elekwa 53'

4/2/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - Preliminary Round - 2Sportpark Ostra Nachwuchs Akademie Dynamo Platz 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Dynamo Dresden U1949%

×Draw20%

Magdeburg U1931%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo Dresden U19Expected goals in this matchMagdeburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.78

Dynamo Dresden U19

2.26

Magdeburg U19

1.78

Dynamo Dresden U19 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 62 away

2.19

creates per match

2.02

1.54

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Dynamo Dresden U19

2.19

Magdeburg U19

2.02

allows per match

Dynamo Dresden U19

1.54

Magdeburg U19

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Dresden U19+0.00on par

Magdeburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Dresden U19 ↓

Magdeburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Dynamo Dresden U19 or draw

69%

Dynamo Dresden U19 or Magdeburg U19

80%

Draw or Magdeburg U19

51%

Winning margin

Dynamo Dresden U19 wins by 2+

29%

Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Dynamo Dresden U19 1+ goals

89%

Dynamo Dresden U19 2+ goals

66%

Dynamo Dresden U19 3+ goals

39%

Magdeburg U19 1+ goals

83%

Magdeburg U19 2+ goals

53%

Magdeburg U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Dresden U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Dresden U19 at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.54 · 78 matches

Magdeburg U19 away — creates 2.02, concedes 2.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Dresden U19 attack 2.19 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.26

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.02 + Dynamo Dresden U19 defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dynamo Dresden U19 scores more

49%

level

20%

Magdeburg U19 scores more

31%

Dynamo Dresden U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dynamo Dresden U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

J. Hoffmann

46'

N. Orth← J.Saliger

46'

M. Ruffing← O. Achtenberg

46'

T. Sanatci← C. Güllmeister

51'

J. Löwe

53'

E. Elekwa

58'

J. Köppe← L. Grabenberg

62'

C. Bräunling← J. Löwe

62'

C. Kosak← J. Hoffmann

72'

N. Höfer← B. Hamidovic

72'

X. Liu← C. Krüger

76'

L. SchulzePenalty

82'

L. Krause← L. Ehrlich

82'

M. Krause← M. Wetschka

88'

C. Kosak

Dynamo

Magdeburg

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Hoffmann

Menzel

Manager: W. Weisse

46'▲N. Orth←▼J.Saliger

62'▲C. Bräunling←▼J. Löwe

62'▲C. Kosak←▼J. Hoffmann

82'▲L. Krause←▼L. Ehrlich

82'▲M. Krause←▼M. Wetschka

Dynamo Dresden U19 substitutes

OrthBräunlingKosakKrauseKrauseHradiskýGrafe

Manager: D. Wölfel

46'▲M. Ruffing←▼O. Achtenberg

46'▲T. Sanatci←▼C. Güllmeister

58'▲J. Köppe←▼L. Grabenberg

72'▲N. Höfer←▼B. Hamidovic

72'▲X. Liu←▼C. Krüger

Magdeburg U19 substitutes

RuffingSanatciKöppeHöferLiuGüldner

U19 Bundesliga: Dynamo Dresden U19 4–1 Magdeburg U19

Dynamo Dresden U19 beat Magdeburg U19 4-1 in U19 Bundesliga on April 2, 2023.

Goals: J. Hoffmann (45'), J. Löwe (51'), E. Elekwa (53'), L. Schulze (76' pen), C. Kosak (88').

The match was played at Sportpark Ostra Nachwuchs Akademie Dynamo Platz 15 in Dresden.

Dynamo Dresden U19 vs Magdeburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Dynamo Dresden U19 4–1 Magdeburg U19