Magdeburg U19 2–1 Carl Zeiss Jena U19

Magdeburg U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

M. Plewa 89'

A. Kanther 78' (pen)

W. Dedidis 63'

10/20/2018

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 8Platz 2 MCDD-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Magdeburg U1951%

×Draw20%

Carl Zeiss Jena U1929%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Magdeburg U19Expected goals in this matchCarl Zeiss Jena U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

1.69

Magdeburg U19

2.28

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

1.69

Magdeburg U19 creates 35% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 60 away

2.37

creates per match

1.37

2.00

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Magdeburg U19

2.37

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

1.37

allows per match

Magdeburg U19

2.00

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Magdeburg U19+0.00on par

Carl Zeiss Jena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magdeburg U19 ↓

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

75%25%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Magdeburg U19 or draw

71%

Magdeburg U19 or Carl Zeiss Jena U19

80%

Draw or Carl Zeiss Jena U19

49%

Winning margin

Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+

31%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Magdeburg U19 1+ goals

90%

Magdeburg U19 2+ goals

66%

Magdeburg U19 3+ goals

39%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 1+ goals

82%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 2+ goals

50%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magdeburg U19 at home — creates 2.37, concedes 2.00 · 62 matches

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 away — creates 1.37, concedes 2.18 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.37 + Carl Zeiss Jena U19 defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.28

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 attack 1.37 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Magdeburg U19 scores more

51%

level

20%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 scores more

29%

Magdeburg U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Magdeburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'

M. Zentrich← M. Schweda

61'

J. Weigel← M. Hommel

61'

K. Amesse← N. Boog

63'

W. Dedidis

70'

B. Schiemann← M. Jürgen

78'

A. KantherPenalty

85'

T. Ogbidi← M. Temp

87'

J. Jurke← Z. Piplica

89'

M. Plewa

Magdeburg

Carl

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: T. Hoßmang

54'▲M. Zentrich←▼M. Schweda

61'▲J. Weigel←▼M. Hommel

70'▲B. Schiemann←▼M. Jürgen

85'▲T. Ogbidi←▼M. Temp

Magdeburg U19 substitutes

ZentrichWeigelSchiemannOgbidiBerishaSalihogluPöllmann

Manager: C. Fröhlich

61'▲K. Amesse←▼N. Boog

87'▲J. Jurke←▼Z. Piplica

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 substitutes

AmesseJurkeDedidisHeubleinFeriziFleischer