Carl Zeiss Jena U19 2–1 Magdeburg U19

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Magdeburg U19

W. Dedidis 53'

N. Jahn 16'

M. Jürgen 36'

3/30/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 21Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld Platz 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Carl Zeiss Jena U1943%

×Draw20%

Magdeburg U1937%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Carl Zeiss Jena U19Expected goals in this matchMagdeburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.18

2.01

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.18

Magdeburg U19

2.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 62 away

2.02

creates per match

2.02

2.00

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.02

Magdeburg U19

2.02

allows per match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19

2.00

Magdeburg U19

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Carl Zeiss Jena U19+0.00on par

Magdeburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 ↓

Magdeburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 or draw

63%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 or Magdeburg U19

80%

Draw or Magdeburg U19

57%

Winning margin

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 wins by 2+

24%

Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 1+ goals

89%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 2+ goals

64%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 3+ goals

37%

Magdeburg U19 1+ goals

87%

Magdeburg U19 2+ goals

59%

Magdeburg U19 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 at home — creates 2.02, concedes 2.00 · 60 matches

Magdeburg U19 away — creates 2.02, concedes 2.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 attack 2.02 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.18

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.02 + Carl Zeiss Jena U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 scores more

43%

level

20%

Magdeburg U19 scores more

37%

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Carl Zeiss Jena U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

N. Jahn

36'

M. Jürgen

53'

W. Dedidis

63'

B. Schiemann← M. Plewa

63'

O. Pöllmann← M. Farwig

63'

P. Schmedemann← L. Menke

73'

J. Scheibe← J. Heublein

75'

N. Boog← F. Modler

83'

M. Hommel← F. Salihoglu

90+2'

R. Fleischer← K. Amesse

Carl

Magdeburg

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: K. Verhoene

73'▲J. Scheibe←▼J. Heublein

75'▲N. Boog←▼F. Modler

90+2'▲R. Fleischer←▼K. Amesse

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 substitutes

ScheibeBoogFleischerLehmpfuhlFeriziKöhlerReithmeir

Manager: T. Hoßmang

63'▲B. Schiemann←▼M. Plewa

63'▲O. Pöllmann←▼M. Farwig

63'▲P. Schmedemann←▼L. Menke

83'▲M. Hommel←▼F. Salihoglu

Magdeburg U19 substitutes

SchiemannPöllmannSchmedemannHommelBerishaDittweHempel

Match Recap: Carl Zeiss Jena U19 vs Magdeburg U19

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 beat Magdeburg U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on March 30, 2019.

Goals: N. Jahn (16'), M. Jürgen (36'), W. Dedidis (53').

The match was played at Ernst-Abbe-Sportfeld Platz 3 in Jena.

Carl Zeiss Jena U19 vs Magdeburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Carl Zeiss Jena U19 vs Magdeburg U19