Magdeburg II 2–0 Ludwigsfelde: Result & Stats

Magdeburg II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Ludwigsfelde

4/1/2025

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 18Platz 2 MCDD-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Magdeburg II64%

×Draw19%

Ludwigsfelde16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Magdeburg IIExpected goals in this matchLudwigsfelde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.04

Magdeburg II

2.25

Ludwigsfelde

1.04

Magdeburg II creates 116% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 50 away

2.53

creates per match

0.96

1.13

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Magdeburg II

2.53

Ludwigsfelde

0.96

allows per match

Magdeburg II

1.13

Ludwigsfelde

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Magdeburg II+0.00on par

Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magdeburg II ↓

Ludwigsfelde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Magdeburg II or draw

84%

Magdeburg II or Ludwigsfelde

81%

Draw or Ludwigsfelde

36%

Winning margin

Magdeburg II wins by 2+

41%

Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Magdeburg II 1+ goals

89%

Magdeburg II 2+ goals

65%

Magdeburg II 3+ goals

39%

Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals

65%

Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals

28%

Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Magdeburg II (draw refunded)

80%

Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magdeburg II at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Ludwigsfelde away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.96 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magdeburg II attack 2.53 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.25

Ludwigsfelde attack 0.96 + Magdeburg II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Magdeburg II scores more

64%

level

19%

Ludwigsfelde scores more

16%

Magdeburg II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Magdeburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff