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Ludwigsfelde vs Magdeburg II — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Ludwigsfelde
Ludwigsfelde
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Magdeburg II
Magdeburg II
2/10/2024Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 16Waldstadion Ludwigsfelde Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Ludwigsfelde19%
×Draw20%
Magdeburg II60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ludwigsfelde
1.11
Magdeburg II
2.13

Magdeburg II creates 92% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 30 away

creates per match

Ludwigsfelde
1.10
Magdeburg II
2.73

allows per match

Ludwigsfelde
1.54
Magdeburg II
1.13

finishing

Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par
Magdeburg II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ludwigsfelde ↓

Magdeburg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ludwigsfelde or draw
40%
Ludwigsfelde or Magdeburg II
80%
Draw or Magdeburg II
81%

Winning margin

Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+
7%
Magdeburg II wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals
67%
Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals
30%
Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals
10%
Magdeburg II 1+ goals
88%
Magdeburg II 2+ goals
63%
Magdeburg II 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)
24%
Magdeburg II (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ludwigsfelde at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.54 · 52 matches

Magdeburg II away — creates 2.73, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ludwigsfelde attack 1.10 + Magdeburg II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.11

Magdeburg II attack 2.73 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ludwigsfelde scores more
19%
level
20%
Magdeburg II scores more
60%

Magdeburg II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Magdeburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Ludwigsfelde 3–2 Magdeburg II

Ludwigsfelde beat Magdeburg II 3-2 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Waldstadion Ludwigsfelde Kunstrasenplatz in Ludwigsfelde.