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Magdeburg II vs Germania Halberstadt — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Magdeburg II
Magdeburg II
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Germania Halberstadt
Germania Halberstadt
8/31/2024Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 4Platz 2 MCDD-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Magdeburg II55%
×Draw21%
Germania Halberstadt24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Magdeburg II
2.06
Germania Halberstadt
1.28

Magdeburg II creates 61% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Magdeburg II
2.53
Germania Halberstadt
1.44

allows per match

Magdeburg II
1.13
Germania Halberstadt
1.60

finishing

Magdeburg II+0.00on par
Germania Halberstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magdeburg II ↓

Germania Halberstadt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Magdeburg II or draw
76%
Magdeburg II or Germania Halberstadt
79%
Draw or Germania Halberstadt
45%

Winning margin

Magdeburg II wins by 2+
33%
Germania Halberstadt wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Magdeburg II 1+ goals
87%
Magdeburg II 2+ goals
61%
Magdeburg II 3+ goals
34%
Germania Halberstadt 1+ goals
72%
Germania Halberstadt 2+ goals
37%
Germania Halberstadt 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Magdeburg II (draw refunded)
70%
Germania Halberstadt (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magdeburg II at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Germania Halberstadt away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magdeburg II attack 2.53 + Germania Halberstadt defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.06

Germania Halberstadt attack 1.44 + Magdeburg II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Magdeburg II scores more
55%
level
21%
Germania Halberstadt scores more
24%

Magdeburg II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Magdeburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Magdeburg II vs Germania Halberstadt

Magdeburg II and Germania Halberstadt drew 0-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Platz 2 MCDD-Arena in Magdeburg.