Germania Halberstadt 3–2 Magdeburg II

Germania Halberstadt

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Magdeburg II

5/11/2024

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 27Friedensstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Germania Halberstadt34%

×Draw21%

Magdeburg II45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Germania HalberstadtExpected goals in this matchMagdeburg II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

2.17

Germania Halberstadt

1.86

Magdeburg II

2.17

Magdeburg II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

2.60

creates per match

2.73

1.60

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Germania Halberstadt

2.60

Magdeburg II

2.73

allows per match

Germania Halberstadt

1.60

Magdeburg II

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Germania Halberstadt+0.00on par

Magdeburg II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Germania Halberstadt ↓

Magdeburg II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Germania Halberstadt or draw

55%

Germania Halberstadt or Magdeburg II

79%

Draw or Magdeburg II

66%

Winning margin

Germania Halberstadt wins by 2+

17%

Magdeburg II wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Germania Halberstadt 1+ goals

84%

Germania Halberstadt 2+ goals

55%

Germania Halberstadt 3+ goals

28%

Magdeburg II 1+ goals

89%

Magdeburg II 2+ goals

64%

Magdeburg II 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Germania Halberstadt (draw refunded)

43%

Magdeburg II (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Germania Halberstadt at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.60 · 45 matches

Magdeburg II away — creates 2.73, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Germania Halberstadt attack 2.60 + Magdeburg II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.86

Magdeburg II attack 2.73 + Germania Halberstadt defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Germania Halberstadt scores more

34%

level

21%

Magdeburg II scores more

45%

Magdeburg II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Magdeburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff