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Magdeburg II vs Einheit Wernigerode — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Magdeburg II
Magdeburg II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Einheit Wernigerode
Einheit Wernigerode
12/15/2024Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 16Platz 2 MCDD-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Magdeburg II62%
×Draw19%
Einheit Wernigerode19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Magdeburg II
2.37
Einheit Wernigerode
1.26

Magdeburg II creates 88% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 77 away

creates per match

Magdeburg II
2.53
Einheit Wernigerode
1.39

allows per match

Magdeburg II
1.13
Einheit Wernigerode
2.21

finishing

Magdeburg II+0.00on par
Einheit Wernigerode+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magdeburg II ↓

Einheit Wernigerode →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Magdeburg II or draw
81%
Magdeburg II or Einheit Wernigerode
81%
Draw or Einheit Wernigerode
38%

Winning margin

Magdeburg II wins by 2+
40%
Einheit Wernigerode wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Magdeburg II 1+ goals
91%
Magdeburg II 2+ goals
68%
Magdeburg II 3+ goals
42%
Einheit Wernigerode 1+ goals
72%
Einheit Wernigerode 2+ goals
36%
Einheit Wernigerode 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Magdeburg II (draw refunded)
76%
Einheit Wernigerode (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magdeburg II at home — creates 2.53, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

Einheit Wernigerode away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.21 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magdeburg II attack 2.53 + Einheit Wernigerode defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.37

Einheit Wernigerode attack 1.39 + Magdeburg II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Magdeburg II scores more
62%
level
19%
Einheit Wernigerode scores more
19%

Magdeburg II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Magdeburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Magdeburg II vs Einheit Wernigerode

Magdeburg II beat Einheit Wernigerode 3-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on December 15, 2024.

The match was played at Platz 2 MCDD-Arena in Magdeburg.