Einheit Wernigerode 1–4 Magdeburg II

Einheit Wernigerode

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Magdeburg II

8/4/2024

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 1Sportplatz Mannsbergstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Einheit Wernigerode27%

×Draw20%

Magdeburg II53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Einheit WernigerodeExpected goals in this matchMagdeburg II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

2.33

Einheit Wernigerode

1.63

Magdeburg II

2.33

Magdeburg II creates 43% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 30 away

2.12

creates per match

2.73

1.92

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Einheit Wernigerode

2.12

Magdeburg II

2.73

allows per match

Einheit Wernigerode

1.92

Magdeburg II

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Einheit Wernigerode+0.00on par

Magdeburg II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Einheit Wernigerode ↓

Magdeburg II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Einheit Wernigerode or draw

47%

Einheit Wernigerode or Magdeburg II

80%

Draw or Magdeburg II

73%

Winning margin

Einheit Wernigerode wins by 2+

13%

Magdeburg II wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Einheit Wernigerode 1+ goals

80%

Einheit Wernigerode 2+ goals

48%

Einheit Wernigerode 3+ goals

22%

Magdeburg II 1+ goals

90%

Magdeburg II 2+ goals

67%

Magdeburg II 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Einheit Wernigerode (draw refunded)

34%

Magdeburg II (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Einheit Wernigerode at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.92 · 77 matches

Magdeburg II away — creates 2.73, concedes 1.13 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Einheit Wernigerode attack 2.12 + Magdeburg II defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.63

Magdeburg II attack 2.73 + Einheit Wernigerode defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Einheit Wernigerode scores more

27%

level

20%

Magdeburg II scores more

53%

Magdeburg II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Magdeburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff