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Magdeburg II vs Chemnitzer FC — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Magdeburg II
Magdeburg II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Chemnitzer FC
Chemnitzer FC
L. Fischer 66'
T. Muller 14'
1/18/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Platz 2 MCDD-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Magdeburg II39%
×Draw23%
Chemnitzer FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Magdeburg II
1.68
Chemnitzer FC
1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Magdeburg II
2.50
Chemnitzer FC
2.14

allows per match

Magdeburg II
1.17
Chemnitzer FC
0.86

finishing

Magdeburg II+0.00on par
Chemnitzer FC+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magdeburg II ↓

Chemnitzer FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Magdeburg II or draw
62%
Magdeburg II or Chemnitzer FC
77%
Draw or Chemnitzer FC
61%

Winning margin

Magdeburg II wins by 2+
20%
Chemnitzer FC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Magdeburg II 1+ goals
81%
Magdeburg II 2+ goals
50%
Magdeburg II 3+ goals
24%
Chemnitzer FC 1+ goals
81%
Chemnitzer FC 2+ goals
49%
Chemnitzer FC 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Magdeburg II (draw refunded)
51%
Chemnitzer FC (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magdeburg II at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Chemnitzer FC away — creates 2.14, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magdeburg II attack 2.50 + Chemnitzer FC defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.68

Chemnitzer FC attack 2.14 + Magdeburg II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Magdeburg II scores more
39%
level
23%
Chemnitzer FC scores more
38%

Magdeburg II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Magdeburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
T. Muller
66'
L. Fischer

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Magdeburg II 0–2 Chemnitzer FC

Chemnitzer FC beat Magdeburg II 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 18, 2025.

Goals: T. Muller (14'), L. Fischer (66').

The match was played at Platz 2 MCDD-Arena in Magdeburg.