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Chemnitzer FC vs Magdeburg II — League #85 2026

Chemnitzer FC
Chemnitzer FC
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Magdeburg II
Magdeburg II
D. Bozic 56'
D. Alberico 12'
M. Baars 90', 11'
A. Millgramm 67'
N. Meier 45'
8/23/2025League #85League #85 · Nordost - 4Stadion Chemnitz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Chemnitzer FC31%
×Draw22%
Magdeburg II47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chemnitzer FC
1.48
Magdeburg II
1.88

Magdeburg II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

Chemnitzer FC
1.36
Magdeburg II
2.40

allows per match

Chemnitzer FC
1.36
Magdeburg II
1.60

finishing

Chemnitzer FC+0.00on par
Magdeburg II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chemnitzer FC ↓

Magdeburg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Chemnitzer FC or draw
53%
Chemnitzer FC or Magdeburg II
78%
Draw or Magdeburg II
69%

Winning margin

Chemnitzer FC wins by 2+
14%
Magdeburg II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Chemnitzer FC 1+ goals
77%
Chemnitzer FC 2+ goals
43%
Chemnitzer FC 3+ goals
19%
Magdeburg II 1+ goals
85%
Magdeburg II 2+ goals
56%
Magdeburg II 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Chemnitzer FC (draw refunded)
39%
Magdeburg II (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chemnitzer FC at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

Magdeburg II away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chemnitzer FC attack 1.36 + Magdeburg II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.48

Magdeburg II attack 2.40 + Chemnitzer FC defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Chemnitzer FC scores more
31%
level
22%
Magdeburg II scores more
47%

Magdeburg II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Magdeburg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
M. Baars
12'
D. Alberico
45'
N. Meier
56'
D. Bozic
67'
A. Millgramm
90'
M. Baars

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #85: Chemnitzer FC 2–4 Magdeburg II

Magdeburg II beat Chemnitzer FC 4-2 in League #85 on August 23, 2025.

Goals: M. Baars (11', 90'), D. Alberico (12'), N. Meier (45'), D. Bozic (56'), A. Millgramm (67').

The match was played at Stadion Chemnitz in Chemnitz.