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Magallanes vs Santiago Morning — Primera B 2026

Magallanes
Magallanes
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Santiago Morning
Santiago Morning
3/24/2024Primera BPrimera B · Round 5Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Magallanes47%
×Draw26%
Santiago Morning27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Magallanes
1.45
Santiago Morning
1.02

Magallanes creates 42% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 113 away

creates per match

Magallanes
1.50
Santiago Morning
1.06

allows per match

Magallanes
0.97
Santiago Morning
1.40

finishing

Magallanes+0.00on par
Santiago Morning+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magallanes ↓

Santiago Morning →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Magallanes or draw
73%
Magallanes or Santiago Morning
74%
Draw or Santiago Morning
53%

Winning margin

Magallanes wins by 2+
23%
Santiago Morning wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Magallanes 1+ goals
77%
Magallanes 2+ goals
42%
Magallanes 3+ goals
18%
Santiago Morning 1+ goals
64%
Santiago Morning 2+ goals
27%
Santiago Morning 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Magallanes (draw refunded)
64%
Santiago Morning (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magallanes at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.97 · 103 matches

Santiago Morning away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.40 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magallanes attack 1.50 + Santiago Morning defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.45

Santiago Morning attack 1.06 + Magallanes defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Magallanes scores more
47%
level
26%
Santiago Morning scores more
27%

Magallanes at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Magallanes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Magallanes 2–1 Santiago Morning

Magallanes beat Santiago Morning 2-1 in Primera B on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in San Bernardo.