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Magallanes vs LDU de Quito — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2026

Magallanes
Magallanes
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
LDU de Quito
LDU de Quito
5/24/2023CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 4Estadio El Teniente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Magallanes40%
×Draw24%
LDU de Quito35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Magallanes
1.56
LDU de Quito
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 13 away

creates per match

Magallanes
1.67
LDU de Quito
1.23

allows per match

Magallanes
1.67
LDU de Quito
1.46

finishing

Magallanes+0.00on par
LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magallanes ↓

LDU de Quito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Magallanes or draw
65%
Magallanes or LDU de Quito
76%
Draw or LDU de Quito
60%

Winning margin

Magallanes wins by 2+
20%
LDU de Quito wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Magallanes 1+ goals
79%
Magallanes 2+ goals
46%
Magallanes 3+ goals
21%
LDU de Quito 1+ goals
77%
LDU de Quito 2+ goals
42%
LDU de Quito 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Magallanes (draw refunded)
53%
LDU de Quito (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magallanes at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

LDU de Quito away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magallanes attack 1.67 + LDU de Quito defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.56

LDU de Quito attack 1.23 + Magallanes defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Magallanes scores more
40%
level
24%
LDU de Quito scores more
35%

Magallanes at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Magallanes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONMEBOL Sudamericana: Magallanes 1–1 LDU de Quito

Magallanes and LDU de Quito drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on May 24, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio El Teniente in Rancagua.