LDU de Quito 4–0 Magallanes: Result & Stats

LDU de Quito

FT

4 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Magallanes

F. Piñero 89' (OG)

M. Martínez 86'

J. Angulo 55', 53'

4/20/2023

CONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 2Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

LDU de Quito72%

×Draw17%

Magallanes11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LDU de QuitoExpected goals in this matchMagallanes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.37

0.78

LDU de Quito

2.37

Magallanes

0.78

LDU de Quito creates 204% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 3 away

2.07

creates per match

1.00

0.57

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

LDU de Quito

2.07

Magallanes

1.00

allows per match

LDU de Quito

0.57

Magallanes

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

LDU de Quito+0.00on par

Magallanes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

LDU de Quito ↓

Magallanes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

LDU de Quito or draw

89%

LDU de Quito or Magallanes

83%

Draw or Magallanes

28%

Winning margin

LDU de Quito wins by 2+

49%

Magallanes wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

LDU de Quito 1+ goals

91%

LDU de Quito 2+ goals

68%

LDU de Quito 3+ goals

42%

Magallanes 1+ goals

54%

Magallanes 2+ goals

18%

Magallanes 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

LDU de Quito (draw refunded)

87%

Magallanes (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

LDU de Quito at home — creates 2.07, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Magallanes away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

LDU de Quito attack 2.07 + Magallanes defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.37

Magallanes attack 1.00 + LDU de Quito defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

LDU de Quito scores more

72%

level

17%

Magallanes scores more

11%

LDU de Quito at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "LDU de Quito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

J. Angulo

LDU de Quito · F

8.7

Match Events

14'

Marcelo Filla

20'

Ezequiel Piovi

27'

Leonel Quiñónez

31'

Jose Enrique AnguloGoal cancelled

32'

José Quintero

39'

Marcelo Filla

39'

Marcelo Filla

43'

M. Vásquez← F. Cadenazzi

46'

B. Ramírez← L. Quiñónez

46'

Y. Zapata← C. Jorquera

46'

T. Aránguiz← I. Vásquez

46'

F. Espinoza← N. Crovetto

52'

Ezequiel PioviGoal cancelled

53'

J. Angulo↳ B. Ramírez

55'

J. Angulo↳ J. Julio

63'

Á. Gonzalez← R. Ibarra

63'

D. Romero← J. Quintero

68'

J. Quiroz← M. Vicuña

71'

Yorman Zapata

74'

M. Martínez← J. Angulo

82'

S. González← L. Alzugaray

86'

M. Martínez↳ A. Alvarado

89'

F. PiñeroOwn goal

90+1'

Alfred Canales

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LDUMagallanes

Overview

60%Possession40%

29Total Shots3

6Corners2

10Fouls15

Shots

29Total Shots3

11On Target1

10Off Target0

8Blocked2

17Inside Box1

12Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

460Total Passes311

396Accurate Passes241

86%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves8

Discipline

10Fouls15

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards2

3Offsides1