Magallanes 0–0 Curico Unido: Result & Stats

Magallanes

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Curico Unido

8/24/2024

Primera B · Round 23Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Magallanes49%

×Draw26%

Curico Unido25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MagallanesExpected goals in this matchCurico Unido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.96

Magallanes

1.48

Curico Unido

0.96

Magallanes creates 54% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 38 away

1.50

creates per match

0.95

0.97

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Magallanes

1.50

Curico Unido

0.95

allows per match

Magallanes

0.97

Curico Unido

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Magallanes+0.00on par

Curico Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magallanes ↓

Curico Unido →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Magallanes or draw

75%

Magallanes or Curico Unido

74%

Draw or Curico Unido

51%

Winning margin

Magallanes wins by 2+

25%

Curico Unido wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Magallanes 1+ goals

77%

Magallanes 2+ goals

43%

Magallanes 3+ goals

19%

Curico Unido 1+ goals

62%

Curico Unido 2+ goals

25%

Curico Unido 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Magallanes (draw refunded)

67%

Curico Unido (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magallanes at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.97 · 103 matches

Curico Unido away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.45 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magallanes attack 1.50 + Curico Unido defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.48

Curico Unido attack 0.95 + Magallanes defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Magallanes scores more

49%

level

26%

Curico Unido scores more

25%

Magallanes at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Magallanes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

D. Catalan

43'

J. Quiroz

46'

B. Galdames← T. Jones

46'

C. Zamorano← D. Figueroa

52'

C. Meneses

61'

E. Neira← D. Catalán

67'

F. Ortiz← D. Urzúa

67'

N. Barrios← C. Bustamante

70'

W. Saez

73'

J. Gonzalez

73'

A. Barría← J. Quiroz

73'

Á. Cayetano← M. Vicuña

79'

J. Larrivey

79'

C. Zamorano

85'

W. Saez

85'

W. Saez

86'

K. Harbottle← S. Parada

90+9'

F. Espinoza

90+2'

M. Ormazábal← J. Méndez

Magallanes

Curico

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Fuentes

46'▲B. Galdames←▼T. Jones

46'▲C. Zamorano←▼D. Figueroa

61'▲E. Neira←▼D. Catalán

73'▲A. Barría←▼J. Quiroz

73'▲Á. Cayetano←▼M. Vicuña

Magallanes substitutes

GaldamesZamoranoNeiraBarríaCayetanoDeschampsRivera

Manager: H. Almandoz

67'▲F. Ortiz←▼D. Urzúa

67'▲N. Barrios←▼C. Bustamante

86'▲K. Harbottle←▼S. Parada

90+2'▲M. Ormazábal←▼J. Méndez

Curico Unido substitutes

OrtizBarriosHarbottleOrmazábalMuñozLaraVergara