Curico Unido 1–1 Magallanes: Result & Stats

Curico Unido

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Magallanes

C. Meneses 62'

M. Gonzalez 90'

3/17/2025

Primera B · Round 4Estadio Bicentenario La Granja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Curico Unido34%

×Draw28%

Magallanes38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Curico UnidoExpected goals in this matchMagallanes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.23

Curico Unido

1.16

Magallanes

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 104 away

1.11

creates per match

1.13

1.32

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Curico Unido

1.11

Magallanes

1.13

allows per match

Curico Unido

1.32

Magallanes

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Curico Unido+0.00on par

Magallanes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Curico Unido ↓

Magallanes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Curico Unido or draw

62%

Curico Unido or Magallanes

72%

Draw or Magallanes

66%

Winning margin

Curico Unido wins by 2+

14%

Magallanes wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Curico Unido 1+ goals

69%

Curico Unido 2+ goals

32%

Curico Unido 3+ goals

11%

Magallanes 1+ goals

71%

Magallanes 2+ goals

35%

Magallanes 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Curico Unido (draw refunded)

48%

Magallanes (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Curico Unido at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.32 · 37 matches

Magallanes away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.20 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Curico Unido attack 1.11 + Magallanes defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Magallanes attack 1.13 + Curico Unido defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Curico Unido scores more

34%

level

28%

Magallanes scores more

38%

Magallanes at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Magallanes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

17'

24'

29'

46'

C. Bustamante← M. Retamal

56'

B. Guisolfo

59'

M. G. Morales Olivares← A. Walters

62'

C. Meneses

69'

M. Ormazabal← J. Gonzalez

72'

I. Rodriguez← J. Quiroz

73'

C. Valenzuela← G. Lezcano

73'

F. Cezar← C. Munoz

78'

N. Barrios← M. Quinteros

82'

A. Barria← T. Aranguiz

84'

B. Guisolfo

84'

B. Guisolfo

86'

F. Valdes← N. Fernandez

90'

M. Gonzalez

Curico

Magallanes

12

Bernatene

3

▼

Walters

14

Valdez

4

Vasquez

10

▼

Aranguiz

8

▼

Vicuna

21

▼

Quiroz

31

⚽

Gonzalez

26

▼

Munoz

7

▼

17

25

15

6

14

▼

Gonzalez

17

⚽

10

24

4

29

▼

Quinteros

7

▼

Fernandez

28

▼

Retamal

Manager: Emiliano Eduardo Astorga Lobos

46'▲C. Bustamante←▼M. Retamal

69'▲M. Ormazabal←▼J. Gonzalez

78'▲N. Barrios←▼M. Quinteros

86'▲F. Valdes←▼N. Fernandez

Curico Unido substitutes

1Vergara11Perez13Bustamante18Ortiz21Ormazabal23Barrios35Valdes

Manager: Iván Gonzalo Vásquez Quilodrán

24'▲M. Osorio←▼M. Vicuna

59'▲M. G. Morales Olivares←▼A. Walters

72'▲I. Rodriguez←▼J. Quiroz

73'▲C. Valenzuela←▼G. Lezcano

73'▲F. Cezar←▼C. Munoz

82'▲A. Barria←▼T. Aranguiz

Magallanes substitutes

1Martinic16Osorio11Valenzuela22Olivares9Cezar28Barria5Rodriguez

Primera B: Curico Unido 1–1 Magallanes

Curico Unido and Magallanes drew 1-1 in Primera B on March 17, 2025.

Goals: C. Meneses (62'), M. Gonzalez (90').

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario La Granja in Santa Cruz.

Curico Unido vs Magallanes — Primera B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera B: Curico Unido 1–1 Magallanes