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Mafra vs Feirense — Segunda Liga 2018

Mafra
Mafra
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Feirense
Feirense
12/29/2024Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 16Estádio Municipal de Mafra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Mafra37%
×Draw28%
Feirense35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mafra
1.18
Feirense
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 114 home / 115 away

creates per match

Mafra
1.18
Feirense
1.09

allows per match

Mafra
1.17
Feirense
1.18

finishing

Mafra+0.00on par
Feirense+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mafra ↓

Feirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mafra or draw
65%
Mafra or Feirense
72%
Draw or Feirense
63%

Winning margin

Mafra wins by 2+
16%
Feirense wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Mafra 1+ goals
69%
Mafra 2+ goals
33%
Mafra 3+ goals
12%
Feirense 1+ goals
68%
Feirense 2+ goals
31%
Feirense 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mafra (draw refunded)
52%
Feirense (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mafra at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.17 · 114 matches

Feirense away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.18 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mafra attack 1.18 + Feirense defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.18

Feirense attack 1.09 + Mafra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mafra scores more
37%
level
28%
Feirense scores more
35%

Mafra at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mafra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Mafra 0–0 Feirense

Mafra and Feirense drew 0-0 in Segunda Liga on December 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Mafra in Mafra.