Mafra 1–1 Feirense: Result & Stats

Mafra

AET

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Feirense

10/22/2023

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio Municipal de Mafra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Mafra37%

×Draw25%

Feirense38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MafraExpected goals in this matchFeirense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.44

Mafra

1.42

Feirense

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 11 away

1.75

creates per match

1.64

1.25

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Mafra

1.75

Feirense

1.64

allows per match

Mafra

1.25

Feirense

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mafra+0.00on par

Feirense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mafra ↓

Feirense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Mafra or draw

62%

Mafra or Feirense

75%

Draw or Feirense

63%

Winning margin

Mafra wins by 2+

17%

Feirense wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Mafra 1+ goals

76%

Mafra 2+ goals

41%

Mafra 3+ goals

17%

Feirense 1+ goals

76%

Feirense 2+ goals

42%

Feirense 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Mafra (draw refunded)

49%

Feirense (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mafra at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Feirense away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mafra attack 1.75 + Feirense defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.42

Feirense attack 1.64 + Mafra defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mafra scores more

37%

level

25%

Feirense scores more

38%

Feirense at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Feirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff