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Madla vs Bremnes — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Madla
Madla
FT
1 – 1
Bremnes
Bremnes
4/10/20233. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 1Madla Handelslag Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Madla56%
×Draw20%
Bremnes25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Madla
2.40
Bremnes
1.57

Madla creates 53% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 26 away

creates per match

Madla
1.68
Bremnes
1.19

allows per match

Madla
1.95
Bremnes
3.12

finishing

Madla+0.00on par
Bremnes+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madla ↓

Bremnes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Madla or draw
75%
Madla or Bremnes
80%
Draw or Bremnes
44%

Winning margin

Madla wins by 2+
35%
Bremnes wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Madla 1+ goals
91%
Madla 2+ goals
69%
Madla 3+ goals
42%
Bremnes 1+ goals
79%
Bremnes 2+ goals
46%
Bremnes 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Madla (draw refunded)
69%
Bremnes (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Madla at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

Bremnes away — creates 1.19, concedes 3.12 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Madla attack 1.68 + Bremnes defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.40

Bremnes attack 1.19 + Madla defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Madla scores more
56%
level
20%
Bremnes scores more
25%

Madla at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Madla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Madla vs Bremnes

Madla and Bremnes drew 1-1 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on April 10, 2023.

The match was played at Madla Handelslag Stadion in Hafrsfjord.