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Bremnes vs Madla — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Bremnes
Bremnes
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Madla
Madla
T. Jonassen 41' (pen)
N. Marchewka 51'
T. Leidland 31'
10/29/20233. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 26ScaleAQ Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Bremnes45%
×Draw20%
Madla35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bremnes
2.21
Madla
1.94

Bremnes creates 14% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 20 away

creates per match

Bremnes
1.81
Madla
1.45

allows per match

Bremnes
2.42
Madla
2.60

finishing

Bremnes+0.00on par
Madla+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bremnes ↓

Madla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Bremnes or draw
65%
Bremnes or Madla
80%
Draw or Madla
55%

Winning margin

Bremnes wins by 2+
26%
Madla wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bremnes 1+ goals
89%
Bremnes 2+ goals
65%
Bremnes 3+ goals
38%
Madla 1+ goals
86%
Madla 2+ goals
58%
Madla 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Bremnes (draw refunded)
56%
Madla (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bremnes at home — creates 1.81, concedes 2.42 · 26 matches

Madla away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.60 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bremnes attack 1.81 + Madla defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.21

Madla attack 1.45 + Bremnes defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bremnes scores more
45%
level
20%
Madla scores more
35%

Bremnes at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bremnes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
T. Leidland
41'
T. JonassenPenalty
51'
N. Marchewka

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bremnes 1 – 2 Madla

Madla beat Bremnes 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on October 29, 2023.

Goals: T. Leidland (31'), T. Jonassen (41' pen), N. Marchewka (51').

The match was played at ScaleAQ Stadion in Bremnes.