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Madagascar vs Equatorial Guinea — Friendlies 2026

Madagascar
Madagascar
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Equatorial Guinea
Equatorial Guinea
11/17/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Madagascar54%
×Draw28%
Equatorial Guinea18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Madagascar
1.35
Equatorial Guinea
0.65

Madagascar creates 108% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Madagascar
1.33
Equatorial Guinea
0.63

allows per match

Madagascar
0.67
Equatorial Guinea
1.38

finishing

Madagascar+0.00on par
Equatorial Guinea+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Madagascar ↓

Equatorial Guinea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Madagascar or draw
82%
Madagascar or Equatorial Guinea
72%
Draw or Equatorial Guinea
46%

Winning margin

Madagascar wins by 2+
26%
Equatorial Guinea wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Madagascar 1+ goals
74%
Madagascar 2+ goals
39%
Madagascar 3+ goals
15%
Equatorial Guinea 1+ goals
48%
Equatorial Guinea 2+ goals
14%
Equatorial Guinea 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Madagascar (draw refunded)
75%
Equatorial Guinea (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Madagascar at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Equatorial Guinea away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Madagascar attack 1.33 + Equatorial Guinea defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.35

Equatorial Guinea attack 0.63 + Madagascar defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Madagascar scores more
54%
level
28%
Equatorial Guinea scores more
18%

Madagascar at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Madagascar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies: Madagascar 2–0 Equatorial Guinea

Madagascar beat Equatorial Guinea 2-0 in Friendlies on November 17, 2025.