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Equatorial Guinea vs Madagascar — Africa Cup of Nations 2019

Equatorial Guinea
Equatorial Guinea
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Madagascar
Madagascar
10/13/2018Africa Cup of NationsAfrica Cup of Nations · Group Stage - 4Estadio de Bata (Bata)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Equatorial Guinea31%
×Draw29%
Madagascar41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Equatorial Guinea
1.00
Madagascar
1.20

Madagascar creates 20% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

creates per match

Equatorial Guinea
1.00
Madagascar
1.40

allows per match

Equatorial Guinea
1.00
Madagascar
1.00

finishing

Equatorial Guinea+0.00on par
Madagascar+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Equatorial Guinea ↓

Madagascar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Equatorial Guinea or draw
59%
Equatorial Guinea or Madagascar
71%
Draw or Madagascar
69%

Winning margin

Equatorial Guinea wins by 2+
11%
Madagascar wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Equatorial Guinea 1+ goals
63%
Equatorial Guinea 2+ goals
26%
Equatorial Guinea 3+ goals
8%
Madagascar 1+ goals
70%
Madagascar 2+ goals
34%
Madagascar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Equatorial Guinea (draw refunded)
43%
Madagascar (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Equatorial Guinea at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Madagascar away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Equatorial Guinea attack 1.00 + Madagascar defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Madagascar attack 1.40 + Equatorial Guinea defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Equatorial Guinea scores more
31%
level
29%
Madagascar scores more
41%

Madagascar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Madagascar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Equatorial Guinea vs Madagascar

Madagascar beat Equatorial Guinea 1-0 in Africa Cup of Nations on October 13, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio de Bata (Bata).