Machine Sazi FC vs Esteghlal Mollasani — Azadegan League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 18+ matches
Machine Sazi FC30%
Esteghlal Mollasani44%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Esteghlal Mollasani creates 27% more chances
Season form · 18 home / 68 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Machine Sazi FC ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Machine Sazi FC at home — creates 0.94, concedes 2.06 · 18 matches
Esteghlal Mollasani away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.31 · 68 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Machine Sazi FC attack 0.94 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.13
Esteghlal Mollasani attack 0.82 + Machine Sazi FC defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.44
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Esteghlal Mollasani at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Esteghlal Mollasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Gol Gohar
Shahin Bushehr
Oxin Alborz
Aluminium Arak
Mes Kerman
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
Baderan Tehran
Qashqai Shiraz
Fajr Sepasi
Mes Rafsanjan
Malavan
Navad Urmia
Khooneh Be Khooneh
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
Shahrdari Tabriz
Shahrdari MahshahrIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Machine Sazi FC host Esteghlal Mollasani on Friday, 7 January 2022 at 10:30. The match is part of the Azadegan League 2018/2019 season.
Azadegan League: Machine Sazi FC 2–2 Esteghlal Mollasani
Machine Sazi FC and Esteghlal Mollasani drew 2-2 in Azadegan League on January 7, 2022.
The match was played at Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium in Tabriz.