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Esteghlal Mollasani vs Machine Sazi FC — Azadegan League 2018

Esteghlal Mollasani
Esteghlal Mollasani
FT
6 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Machine Sazi FC
Machine Sazi FC
5/16/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 30Ahvāz Takhti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Esteghlal Mollasani67%
×Draw20%
Machine Sazi FC13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Esteghlal Mollasani
2.02
Machine Sazi FC
0.76

Esteghlal Mollasani creates 166% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 18 away

creates per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
1.04
Machine Sazi FC
0.67

allows per match

Esteghlal Mollasani
0.84
Machine Sazi FC
3.00

finishing

Esteghlal Mollasani+0.00on par
Machine Sazi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esteghlal Mollasani ↓

Machine Sazi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Esteghlal Mollasani or draw
87%
Esteghlal Mollasani or Machine Sazi FC
80%
Draw or Machine Sazi FC
33%

Winning margin

Esteghlal Mollasani wins by 2+
42%
Machine Sazi FC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Esteghlal Mollasani 1+ goals
87%
Esteghlal Mollasani 2+ goals
60%
Esteghlal Mollasani 3+ goals
33%
Machine Sazi FC 1+ goals
53%
Machine Sazi FC 2+ goals
18%
Machine Sazi FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Esteghlal Mollasani (draw refunded)
84%
Machine Sazi FC (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esteghlal Mollasani at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.84 · 67 matches

Machine Sazi FC away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esteghlal Mollasani attack 1.04 + Machine Sazi FC defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.02

Machine Sazi FC attack 0.67 + Esteghlal Mollasani defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Esteghlal Mollasani scores more
67%
level
20%
Machine Sazi FC scores more
13%

Esteghlal Mollasani at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Esteghlal Mollasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Esteghlal Mollasani vs Machine Sazi FC

Esteghlal Mollasani beat Machine Sazi FC 6-1 in Azadegan League on May 16, 2022.

The match was played at Ahvāz Takhti in Ahwaz.