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Machida Zelvia vs Tokyo Verdy — J1 League 2018

Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
Preview
05:00
Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
11/28/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 17Machida GION Stadium
Big match
46%
Machida Zelvia
model favours
46%28%26%

Machida Zelvia are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Machida Zelvia46%
×Draw28%
Tokyo Verdy26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machida Zelvia
1.35
Tokyo Verdy
0.93

Machida Zelvia creates 45% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 46 away

creates per match

Machida Zelvia
1.41
Tokyo Verdy
0.85

allows per match

Machida Zelvia
1.00
Tokyo Verdy
1.30

finishing

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par
Tokyo Verdy+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Tokyo Verdy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw
74%
Machida Zelvia or Tokyo Verdy
72%
Draw or Tokyo Verdy
54%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
22%
Tokyo Verdy wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
74%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
39%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
15%
Tokyo Verdy 1+ goals
61%
Tokyo Verdy 2+ goals
24%
Tokyo Verdy 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
64%
Tokyo Verdy (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 44 matches

Tokyo Verdy away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 1.41 + Tokyo Verdy defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.35

Tokyo Verdy attack 0.85 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more
46%
level
28%
Tokyo Verdy scores more
26%

Machida Zelvia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Tokyo Verdy score first in only 10% of matches
  • 70% of Machida Zelvia’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • 35% of Machida Zelvia’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Machida Zelvia
Defensively solid
Tokyo Verdy
Defensively solid
45%Possession47%
78%Pass accuracy76%
12.9Shots10.2
1.63xGBiggest gap0.88
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Machida ZelviaTokyo Verdy

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Machida Zelvia
4
Draws
2
Tokyo Verdy
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 40%
0–02–21–00–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Zelvia
DDWDD
Verdy
LDLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Machida Zelvia face Tokyo Verdy (J1 League)

J1 League returns with Machida Zelvia hosting Tokyo Verdy. Match starts November 28, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Machida Zelvia host Tokyo Verdy at Machida GION Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.