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Machida Zelvia vs Shimizu S-pulse — J1 League 2025

Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
Preview
11:00
Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
3/6/2027J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 24Machida GION Stadium
Big match
47%
Machida Zelvia
model favours
47%27%26%

Machida Zelvia are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Machida Zelvia47%
×Draw27%
Shimizu S-pulse26%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machida Zelvia
1.41
Shimizu S-pulse
0.98

Machida Zelvia creates 44% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 33 away

creates per match

Machida Zelvia
1.30
Shimizu S-pulse
0.97

allows per match

Machida Zelvia
1.00
Shimizu S-pulse
1.52

finishing

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par
Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw
74%
Machida Zelvia or Shimizu S-pulse
73%
Draw or Shimizu S-pulse
53%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
23%
Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
76%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
41%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
17%
Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
62%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
26%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
64%
Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.00 · 27 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.52 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 1.30 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.41

Shimizu S-pulse attack 0.97 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more
47%
level
27%
Shimizu S-pulse scores more
26%

Machida Zelvia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Shimizu S-pulse score first in only 17% of matches
  • Machida Zelvia raise their game against the top half — 47% wins vs the upper half, only 35% vs the lower
  • 70% of Machida Zelvia’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • 35% of Machida Zelvia’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Shimizu S-pulse fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.4 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Machida Zelvia
Defensively solid
Shimizu S-pulse
Balanced
46%Possession50%
78%Pass accuracy78%
12.7Shots13.3
1.52xGBiggest gap1.38
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Machida ZelviaShimizu S-pulse

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Machida Zelvia
1
Draws
2
Shimizu S-pulse
Avg goals: 3.4BTTS: 60%
3–02–22–32–10–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Zelvia
DDWDD
S-pulse
WLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Machida Zelvia face Shimizu S-pulse (J1 League)

J1 League returns with Machida Zelvia hosting Shimizu S-pulse. Match starts March 6, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Machida Zelvia host Shimizu S-pulse at Machida GION Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.