Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Machida Zelvia vs Kashima — J1 League 2018

Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
Preview
11:00
Kashima
Kashima
3/10/2027J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 25Machida GION Stadium
Big match
49%
Machida Zelvia
model favours
49%23%28%

Machida Zelvia are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Machida Zelvia49%
×Draw23%
Kashima28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machida Zelvia
1.81
Kashima
1.31

Machida Zelvia creates 38% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Machida Zelvia
2.16
Kashima
1.49

allows per match

Machida Zelvia
1.14
Kashima
1.47

finishing

Machida Zelvia-0.36scores less
Kashima+0.08on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Kashima →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw
72%
Machida Zelvia or Kashima
77%
Draw or Kashima
51%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
27%
Kashima wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
84%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
54%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
27%
Kashima 1+ goals
73%
Kashima 2+ goals
38%
Kashima 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
64%
Kashima (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.14 · 5 matches

Kashima away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.47 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 2.16 + Kashima defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.81

Kashima attack 1.49 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more
49%
level
23%
Kashima scores more
28%

Machida Zelvia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Kashima score first in only 21% of matches
  • 70% of Machida Zelvia’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 32% of Kashima’s matches
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Machida Zelvia 3 vs Kashima 1
  • 35% of Machida Zelvia’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Machida Zelvia
Defensively solid
Kashima
Balanced
45%PossessionBiggest gap53%
78%Pass accuracy80%
12.9Shots13.6
1.63xG1.44
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Machida ZelviaKashima

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2
Machida Zelvia
1
Draws
3
Kashima
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 50%
1–10–32–10–11–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Zelvia
DDWDD
Kashima
WWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Machida Zelvia face Kashima (J1 League)

J1 League returns with Machida Zelvia hosting Kashima. Match starts March 10, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Machida Zelvia host Kashima at Machida GION Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.